Read Part 1 and Part 2 of this serial article. Kaye, who specializes in building maps and collecting data using images snapped by satellites, has spent his time at the Observatory helping scientists draw some of the most accurate maps of the Big Island’s lava flows to date. That research may help residents predict the direction that a lava flow could take, allowing them to build or buy houses in less vulnerable locations. And it might also help them learn how quickly lava from a given volcano is likely to travel down the mountain and force evacuations.

Kaye is just one of the dozens of scientists who are actively working to solve the mysteries of Hawaii’s volcanoes. Earlier in the day, while visiting the park’s Jaggar Museum, I’d met Frank Truesdale, a staff geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaii Volcanoes Observatory who is Kaye’s supervisor and one of the foremost experts on the geology of Hawaii’s volcanoes. Truesdale has spent years out in the field mapping the extent and history of Kilauea and Mauna Loa’s lava flows, Some of this information went into the projects Kaye and Truesdale had worked on over the past six months. From this information, he has compiled the first eruption frequency map of Mauna Loa. The color-coded map used both ground and satellite observations to create an accessible yet sophisticated picture of where the lava has gone, when it has gone there, and how often eruptions have occurred in specific areas. “My job is to create predictive information, and try to understand what we can expect the next time we have a major eruption,” he explains.

Truesdale has also pioneered the innovative adoption of modeling software designed to predict the path of flood waters to instead surmise the potential path lava might take along the slopes of the Big Island’s volcanoes. “Basically, the lava should act almost the same as water during a flood,” he says. Should his techniques prove effective, they could be used throughout the world to determine where lava could flow and what buildings or roads lie in harm’s way. We’re not exactly heading into harm’s way. Kaye assures me the early evening hike is quite safe. But I am still a little nervous about walking so close to such an elemental force. Molten red lava tends to do that to you. When Kaye and I arrive at the edge of the active flow, it’s clear there won’t be any ocean fireworks on this night. I am a little disappointed but not much. The place has such a severe, serene beauty that its hard not to feel awestruck. “I heard they slowed down and changed direction. That’s sure what it looks like,” Kaye says.

Hawaii Volcano Links

* Eruption Updates
* Where to Stay, General Info
* Flickr Pics

—Alex, 08/20/06