Sure looks like its slowing down, at the very least. Japanese tourism is cratering, down nearly 10% last year. In the last week of January, Hawaii hotel occupancy fell below 70%. Word is out that Hawaii hotels are already slashing rates for February and March, months that are usually fairly busy. April should be even cheaper. That said, don't look for reductions on the rack rate. Rather, the hotels will offer nifty deals like "stay for three nights, get a fourth night free" that effecitvely lower rates without the hotels having to announce lower rack rates (once rack rates go down, its very hard to get them back up). Couple this with news that flights to Hawaii from the Mainland have fallen (compared to most airfares, which have gone up) and Hawaii is actually looking like a cheap date for the Spring 2007 season. Well, not that cheap!

—Alex, 02/05/07