On the heels of the recent Hawaii Visitors Bureau survey results showing visitors growing disenchanted with Hawaii comes news that January visitor numbers were well below those from the same period in 2006. Couple this with the news from Norwegian Cruise Lines that it continues to bleed red from its Hawaii cruise operations and one has to wonder whether the "soft landing" in the visitor industry here is actually starting to look a bit more like a crash landing.

I've speculated on what, in my view, is causing the problem. Of course, for people looking to come to Hawaii, this is great news. The best way to play a tourism slowdown is to look for great packages. Quoted rates will not drop. Hotels hate to do that. They will, however, add an extra night free to any offer. And that can add up -- if, for example, you are getting an extra night added to a five day stay with one night free already, and the room costs $400 per night, you are getting nearly 20% more for the same $2000 in hotel bills. So watch for killer packages getting served up and mega savings since even big hotels lose money for each night a room stays empty.

—Alex, 03/05/07