So the latest in from the National Weather Service and the Pacific Hurricane Center have Flossie passing only 100 miles South of the Big Island. She's currently a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph, moving north-northwest at 15 miles per hour. This is bad. It's entirely possible the storm could hit the Big Island full on, with all sorts of damage resulting. I'd also say its a fairly safe assumption at this point that ALL Hawaiian Islands are going to be in for some rough weather later this week as the storm passes close by. Maui, pretty much for sure, will also get hit somewhat hard with rain and wind.

In my past experience here, any sort of tropic storm or major depression coming even close to the islands causes a lot of rain, nasty wave action, muggy weather, and other unpleasantness. Best case, by late this week the skies have cleared and its all normal. Worst case -- man, don't want to go there. We are currently stocking up on water and batteries. Remember, folks, Iniki, the last big hurricane to hit Hawaii, was tracking dead center for Oahu, which would have been a Katrina-like catastrophe due to the rickety nature of much construction in the islands. At the last minute, Iniki veered North and took out Kauai -- as in, totaled it. The reconstruction period lasted for years. So, with all of this in mind, you may want to cancel your Hawaii trip even if it means eating the reservation and / or other costs. So far, on Oahu where I live, no one is freaked out or anything. They probably should be more concerned. I posted the latest satellite image here.

—Alex, 08/13/07